Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unification or the status quo. They writes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
